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ApathyEcstasy
yeah, different species of slanteye here
 
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If Obama plans to make America look like THIS in terms of high speed rail someday, I'll call his administration a success despite the bank bailouts and other crazy shit.

http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/1047/file715090.jpg
__________________
7.9%, Chinese growth has screeched to a halt! People
are going to riot in the streets! The CCP is about to
fall!
8.1%, Chinese growth has over-heated! People are
going to riot in the streets! The CCP is about to fall!
Old 04-05-2009, 04:04 PM ApathyEcstasy is offline  
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ElectribeCyanide
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ApathyEcstasy View Post
If Obama plans to make America look like THIS in terms of high speed rail someday, I'll call his administration a success despite the bank bailouts and other crazy shit.

http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/1047/file715090.jpg

Good luck seeing that in America, remember the street car system? Yea, the tire, car and oil manufacturers made sure mass public transit will not be coming back
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Old 04-06-2009, 09:21 AM ElectribeCyanide is offline  
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ApathyEcstasy
yeah, different species of slanteye here
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ElectribeCyanide View Post
Good luck seeing that in America, remember the street car system? Yea, the tire, car and oil manufacturers made sure mass public transit will not be coming back

The car manufacturers are eating shit right now though. Let's hope that GM/Ford/Chrysler eating shit will mean their grip loosens?

Everyone who has played any of the Sim City games knows that mass transit is the future. Don't be left behind in the past!
__________________
7.9%, Chinese growth has screeched to a halt! People
are going to riot in the streets! The CCP is about to
fall!
8.1%, Chinese growth has over-heated! People are
going to riot in the streets! The CCP is about to fall!
Old 04-06-2009, 12:53 PM ApathyEcstasy is offline  
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ApathyEcstasy
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Bamboo shoots of recovery
Apr 16th 2009 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition

Signs that a giant fiscal stimulus is starting to work in China

Shutterstock
THE Chinese consider eight to be a lucky number because it sounds like the word meaning “prosperity”. And luck, combined with a massive fiscal stimulus, may yet help the government to achieve its growth target of 8% in 2009. Earlier this year, most economists thought such growth was impossible at a time of deep global recession, but some are now nudging up their forecasts.

At first sight, the GDP figures published on Thursday April 16th were disappointing. China’s growth rate fell to 6.1% in the year to the first quarter, less than half its pace in mid-2007. On closer inspection, however, the economy is starting to perk up. Comparing the first quarter with the previous three months, GDP rose at an estimated annualised rate of around 6%, after nearly stalling in the fourth quarter (see chart). By March the economy was gaining more speed, with the year-on-year increase in industrial production rising to 8.3% from an average of 3.8% in the previous two months. Retail sales were 16% higher in real terms than a year ago, and fixed investment has soared by 30%, signalling that the government’s infrastructure-led stimulus is starting to work.

Exports, on the other hand, tumbled by 17% in the year to March and global demand is widely expected to remain weak this year. This is the main reason why some economists expect GDP growth of “only” 5% for 2009 as a whole. But the gloomier forecasts tend both to overstate the importance of exports and to understate the size of the government’s stimulus.

Contrary to conventional wisdom, China’s sharp economic slowdown was not triggered by a collapse in exports to America. Its growth began to slow in 2007, well before exports stumbled, driven by a collapse in the property market and construction. This was the result of tight credit policies aimed at preventing the economy from overheating. The global recession dealt a second blow late last year, but China’s economy is less dependent on exports than popularly believed. Exports account for nearly 40% of GDP but they use a lot of imported components, and only make up about 18% of domestic value-added. Fewer than 10% of jobs are in the export sector.

If a collapse in domestic demand led China’s economy down, it can also help lead it up again. Not only is China’s fiscal stimulus one of the biggest in the world this year, but the government’s ability to “ask” state-owned firms to spend and state banks to lend means that the government’s measures are being implemented more rapidly than elsewhere. To take one example, railway investment has tripled over the past year.

Only about 30% of the government’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) infrastructure package is being funded by the government. Most of the rest will be financed by bank lending, which had already soared by 30% in the 12 months to March, twice its pace last summer. JPMorgan thinks that this credit and investment boom could lift GDP growth to an annualised pace of over 10% in each of the next three quarters.

Jonathan Anderson, an economist at UBS, argues that the property market could be as important as the fiscal stimulus in determining China’s fate. After falling sharply last year, housing sales rose by 36% in value in the year to March. Housing starts are still down, but if sales continue to strengthen, construction could pick up in the second half of 2009. That would also help to support consumption: about half of China’s job losses among migrant workers have been in the building industry.

If construction does recover and infrastructure spending continues to rise, then even if exports remain weak, China could see growth of close to 8% this year—impressive stuff when rich economies are expected to contract by 4-5%. There are growing concerns about the quality of that growth, however. The World Bank estimates that government-influenced spending will account for three-quarters of China’s GDP growth this year. The clear risk is that politically directed lending creates more overcapacity, poor rates of return and future bad loans for banks.

These are valid concerns. But Andy Rothman, an economist at CLSA, a brokerage, reckons that state-owned firms mainly plan to increase their spending on upgrading existing production facilities, rather than expanding capacity. Also, about half of the increase in investment is on public infrastructure. This will inevitably include some white elephants, but in a poor country, the return on infrastructure investment is generally high. There is no need to build “bridges to nowhere”, when two-fifths of villages lack a paved road to the nearest market town.

What about the risks to banks? The last time they were forced to support the government’s stimulus policy, during Asia’s financial crisis in 1998, Chinese banks were left with large non-performing loans. Bad loans will rise again this time, but Tao Wang, also at UBS, argues that banks are in a stronger position than in 1998. China is one of the few countries in the world where bank credit has fallen relative to GDP over the past five years. Banks have an average loan-to-deposit ratio of only 67%, low by international standards, and less than 5% of banks’ loans are non-performing, down from 40% in 1998.

The biggest task for China is to find a new engine for future growth. It cannot rely on exports, nor can the investment stimulus be sustained for long. Without stronger consumer spending, China’s growth will be much slower than in recent years. Reforms to improve health care and the social safety net will take many years to encourage people to save less.

Andy Xie, an independent economist based in Shanghai, suggests that the quickest way to boost consumption would be for the government to distribute the shares that it holds in state-owned enterprises to households, and to force those firms to pay larger dividends. But the authorities in Beijing are unlikely to take his advice. How else would it lean on big firms to support the economy in times like these?
__________________
7.9%, Chinese growth has screeched to a halt! People
are going to riot in the streets! The CCP is about to
fall!
8.1%, Chinese growth has over-heated! People are
going to riot in the streets! The CCP is about to fall!
Old 04-16-2009, 09:33 AM ApathyEcstasy is offline  
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ApathyEcstasy
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Dragon nightmares
Apr 16th 2009
From The Economist print edition

The European Union finds it hard to agree over how to deal with China

Illustration by Peter Schrank
HERE is a quick way to spoil a Brussels dinner party. Simply suggest that world governance is slipping away from the G20, G7, G8 or other bodies in which Europeans may hog up to half the seats. Then propose, with gloomy relish, that the future belongs to the G2: newly fashionable jargon for a putative body formed by China and America.

The fear of irrelevance haunts Euro-types, for all their public boasting about Europe’s future might. The thought that the European Union might not greatly interest China is especially painful. After all, the 21st century was meant to be different. Indeed, to earlier leaders like France’s Jacques Chirac, a rising China was welcome as another challenge to American hegemony, ushering in a “multipolar world” in which the EU would play a big role. If that meant kow-towing to Chinese demands to shun Taiwan, snub the Dalai Lama or tone down criticism of human-rights abuses, so be it. Most EU countries focused on commercial diplomacy with China, to ensure that their leaders’ visits could end with flashing cameras and the signing of juicy contracts.

Meanwhile, Europe’s trade deficit with China hit nearly €170 billion ($250 billion) last year. China has erected myriad barriers to European firms, notes a scathing new audit of EU-China relations by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), a think-tank. The trend is ominous. In five years, China wants 60% of car parts in new Chinese vehicles to be locally made. This is alarming news for Germany, the leading European exporter to China thanks to car parts, machine tools and other widgets.

As ever, Europeans disagree over how to respond. Some are willing to challenge China politically—for example, Germany, Britain, Sweden and the Netherlands. But they are mostly free traders. That makes them hostile when other countries call for protection against alleged Chinese cheating. In contrast, a block of mostly southern and central Europeans, dubbed “accommodating mercantilists” by the ECFR, are quick to call for anti-dumping measures. But that makes them anxious to keep broader relations sweet by bowing to China on political issues.

The result is that European politicians often find themselves defending unconditional engagement with China. The usual claim is that this will slowly transform the country into a freer, more responsible stakeholder in the world. The secret, it is murmured, is to let Europe weave China into an entangling web of agreements and sectoral dialogues. In 2007 no fewer than 450 European delegations visited China. Big countries like France and Britain add their own bilateral dialogues, not trusting the EU to protect their interests or do the job properly. There are now six parallel EU and national “dialogues” with China on climate change, for example.

Alas, familiarity with Europeans does not preclude contempt. EU-China dialogues on human rights or the rule of law are a way of tying Europeans down with process, avoiding substance. China abruptly cancelled an EU-China summit scheduled for last December. The astonishing snub was presented by Chinese diplomats as punishment for France’s Nicolas Sarkozy for meeting the Dalai Lama when his country held the rotating presidency of the EU (with other EU countries left to take note).

Chinese interest in the EU peaked in 2003, when it looked as if the club would soon acquire a constitution, a foreign minister and a full-time president. But the honeymoon had ended by 2006, after China failed to get the EU to lift an arms embargo imposed after the Tiananmen Square killings of 1989. At policy seminars and closed-door conferences, state-sponsored Chinese analysts now drip condescension. America is a strong man and China a growing teenager, said one at a 2008 conference in Stockholm; Europe is a “rich old guy”, heading for his dotage. At a recent Wilton Park conference in Britain, a Chinese academic called the EU a weak power, unprepared to challenge American hegemony: China was not about to work with it on a new world order.

Unity meets disunity
If you wanted to design a competitor to show up European weaknesses most painfully, you would come up with something a lot like China. It is a centralised, unitary state, which is patient and relentless in the pursuit of national goals that often matter more to the Chinese than anyone else. European governments do not even agree on what they want from China. They are fuzzily committed to EU “values”, but will readily trample on those in a scramble to secure jobs and cheap goods for their voters. They do not share the same vision of trade policy, or how best to press China on climate change. Worse, the biggest countries, especially France, Germany and Britain, compete to be China’s favourite European partner. This causes damage. It was mad that the British and Germans did not rush to back Mr Sarkozy when he was bullied over the Dalai Lama. They could easily have insisted that EU leaders meet whomsoever they want.

Yet talk of a “Chi-merican” G2 running the world is overblown. For one thing, China will probably prefer to keep its own global options open. For another, senior Brussels figures rightly insist that the EU’s voice cannot be ignored in global economic discussions. It is China’s largest trading partner, after all, with two-way trade worth a huge €300 billion.

Ideally, European governments would be less feeble and fractious. Failing that, Europe could set itself more modest goals. Chinese officials are reportedly fascinated by European welfare and public-health systems, as well as by EU product regulation. Providing a model for red-tape or welfare reform may not be as much fun as jointly running a multipolar world. But with its pathetic record of handling partners such as China, Europe should welcome recognition of its relevance, however it is offered.
__________________
7.9%, Chinese growth has screeched to a halt! People
are going to riot in the streets! The CCP is about to
fall!
8.1%, Chinese growth has over-heated! People are
going to riot in the streets! The CCP is about to fall!
Old 04-17-2009, 04:48 PM ApathyEcstasy is offline  
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ApathyEcstasy
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http://www.time.com/time/business/ar...892494,00.html

China Takes On the Global Car Business
__________________
7.9%, Chinese growth has screeched to a halt! People
are going to riot in the streets! The CCP is about to
fall!
8.1%, Chinese growth has over-heated! People are
going to riot in the streets! The CCP is about to fall!
Old 04-20-2009, 09:06 PM ApathyEcstasy is offline  
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